Forecasts solar storms: U-M teams up to predict—and protect against—space weather
By Wendy Sutton
Imagine a weather forecast that calls for high winds and powerful storms. But these aren’t the kind that bring rain or thunder.
Instead, these are streams of charged particles in a plasma state, moving at speeds of up to 800 kilometers per second. This is what is known as space weather, the applied field of space physics that forecasts the environment surrounding our planet.
At the forefront of this field is Tuija Pulkkinen, professor of climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan. For Pulkkinen, space weather isn’t just a research specialty, it’s essential for safeguarding spacecraft, astronauts and the infrastructure of our technology-driven society, including satellite communications, power grids and GPS systems.
Over the past few decades, the field has evolved from crude simulations of the space environment to complex computational models that use artificial intelligence and integrate real-time data.
“We are moving into the realm where we can really make use of the biggest computers in the world to really put in the plasma physics that we need to solve the system. And not only to take on the theoretical part, but then take all the observations and build through data assimilation and artificial intelligence methods to merge all the information we have together. And in that sense, the simulations don’t only become forecasts, they become another data bank. So they’re a source of data themselves.”
“We are moving into the realm where we can really make use of the biggest computers in the world to really put in the plasma physics that we need to solve the system. And not only to take on the theoretical part, but then take all the observations and build through data assimilation and artificial intelligence methods to merge all the information we have together,” Pulkkinen said. “And in that sense, the simulations don’t only become forecasts, they become another data bank. So they’re a source of data themselves.”
Pulkkinen notes that increased traffic in low Earth orbit (LEO) presents both great opportunities and great challenges in her field.
It is an opportunity because of the boost it has given the space engineering program. Traditionally, the undergraduate program at U-M focused on preparing students for graduate studies in research. That has shifted, however, with companies like Blue Origin and SpaceX inspiring many students to seek engineering careers, thereby expanding enrollment.
The challenge comes in building more accurate models to manage the increased traffic. Space weather can change the density of Earth’s atmosphere. When solar winds are active, that additional energy is absorbed by the atmosphere, causing it to expand. As it expands, denser air from lower layers rises to higher altitudes. For satellites in LEO, this means instead of moving through thin air, they encounter thicker air, which creates more drag. Orbiting space debris is affected in the same way.
To improve forecasts of this region, scientists must connect models of the space environment with models of Earth’s atmosphere. Recognizing this need, NASA awarded $9.7 million to establish Space Weather Centers for Excellence at the University of Michigan.
One of the centers, the Space Weather Operational Readiness Development Center, is led by Pulkkinen under Principal Investigator Thomas Berger at the University of Colorado Boulder. The center aims to integrate these models together for more accurate simulations and further elevate the field.
“My work is mostly on the fundamental research side of the process, but I also try to take those processes that are relevant for the practical applications, and work at moving the research models towards a state where they can be taken to operational use,” Pulkkinen said.